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New research released by the Environment Agency suggests river flows could drop drastically by 2050 as climate change puts increasing stress on the water environment and wildlife across England and Wales.
The Environment Agency has produced a series of maps showing future monthly changes in river flow across England and Wales - a first for the UK. The research is crucial in helping to plan for future water resources management.
The work used climate projections from the UK Climate Impacts Programme and shows that by 2050 river flows in winter may rise by 10 to 15%, however river flows in the late summer and early autumn could drop by over 50% and as much as 80% in some places. These patterns would result in a drop in total annual river flow of up to 15%. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storms which bring polluting runoff to our rivers, and changes in river flows which dilute discharges could put wildlife at risk from poorer water quality.
The Agency will use the new river flow projections along with other emerging research to look at the extent and likelihood of impacts on water quality to plan what actions should be taken.
Dr Paul Leinster, Chief Executive of the Environment Agency, said:
"This ground-breaking research provides significant information on the effect of climate change on river flows, water quality and wildlife. The maps suggest a much harsher future for the environment across England and Wales. To be sure we can cope with the kind of changes expected, we must act now."
There will also be regional differences in the timing of low flows. Flows in Wales, the north of England and the west of England are predicted to drop most in the late summer (July, August and September) while low flows in the south and east of England are likely to extend well into the autumn with even November river flows dropping to almost half their current volume. [Map or graphics to exemplify]
Dr Leinster added:
"The demand for water is also forecast to increase which will only add to the increased pressure on the environment. Water companies already take account of climate change in their long-term plans for providing secure supplies. However, this study reinforces the need for us all to play our part in using water wisely. We will publish a new Water Resources Strategy early in 2009 setting out the actions which we and others will need to take to make sure there is enough water for people and the environment."
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