The government has today published the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) – which warns that UK faces myriad risks which could cost many billions of pounds a year to tackle within a relatively short timescale by 2050.

The five-year assessment is based on the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk published in June 2021 by the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the government’s independent adviser on climate change. 

The government said this latest CCRA3 assessment “demonstrates that we recognise the risks due to climate change and are on the beginning of the journey to respond to those risks.”

“The UK government recognises there are many barriers to effective adaptation that we must overcome. These include limitations in information and awareness of climate risk, lack of clarity on ownership of risks and responses, and the complexity of adapting for a future which contains innate uncertainty. We recognise that government leadership is often required to ensure solutions are applied across the whole system and to avoid maladaptation of individual assets.”

The Technical Report for the CCRA3 identifies sixty-one UK-wide climate risks and opportunities cutting across multiple sectors of the economy. The economic magnitude of each risk has been assessed for both a 2°C and 4°C warming scenario. The average surface temperature in the UK has risen by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, and further warming is predicted under all decarbonisation pathways set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1. "While we aim to limit warming to 1.5°C, the evidence shows that we must be prepared for warming up to 4°C," the government said.

Each of the sixty-one risks or opportunities have been ranked by expected impact and assigned an urgency score in four categories. The risk assessment concludes that thirty-four of sixty-one risks are ranked as ‘more action needed’, meaning that new stronger or different government action is required in the next five years over and above those already planned.

Of these, eight are considered as of ‘very high’ impact by 2050s, ten, by 2080s on a 2°C warming pathway, and 12 by 2080s on 4°C scenario. For only seven of sixty-one risks, further action is not recommended.

Economic damages from eight risks alone could exceed £1 billion per year each by 2050 with a temperature rise of 2°C

For the eight individual risks, the report warns that economic damages could exceed £1 billion per year each by 2050 with a temperature rise of 2°C, with the cost of climate change to the UK rising to at least 1% of GDP by 2045.

The number of risks that fall into this ‘very high’ damage category has risen since a similar assessment in CCRA1 a decade ago, which found only three risks this large.

The Valuation Report for the CCRA3 estimates that, for eight of the risks alone identified in the CCC’s Independent Assessment , economic damages by 2050 under 2°C could exceed £1 billion p.a. The risk assessment prioritises the eight risk areas for action in the next two years. Potential risks which need to be addressed as a matter of priority include :

• risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards
• risks from increased flooding and drought, including risks to soil health
• risks to natural carbon stores and carbon sequestration from multiple hazards
• risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple climate hazards
• risks to supply of food, goods and vital services due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks
• risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from climate hazards which cause cascading failures across sectors
• risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system
• risks to human health, wellbeing and productivity due to overheating in places of work from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings;
• risks to financial markets
• multiple risks to the UK from climate change impacts overseas

According to the report, the evidence indicates that the costs of climate change to the UK are high and increasing. It also highlights the fact that even just a small shift in the average climate can lead to major changes in extreme events. A small change in the average climate can drive unprecedented weather events, because it shifts the distribution. For example, what used to be a 1-in-100-year flood event can become a 1-in-10-year event.

The report says there is a strong case for acting now – not later – especially in three key areas:

1. The UK already experiences large economic costs from climate extremes, and these are growing. There are therefore large net economic benefits today from reducing these with low- and no-regret actions, which have high benefit to cost ratios.
2. There are areas where, if action is not taken now, we commit (lock-in) to large future impacts. This is particularly the case in areas that involve decisions or investment that are very difficult to reverse, for example with new housing and infrastructure
3. There are some extremely low-cost preparatory actions that can be taken to improve future decisions. This involves developing adaptive management plans, especially for decisions that have long lead times or involve major future change in the future that is uncertain.

Climate Adaptation Minister says" there is clearly much more that we need to do"

Climate Adaptation Minister Jo Churchill said:

“The scale and severity of the challenge posed by climate change means we cannot tackle it overnight, and although we’ve made good progress in recent years there is clearly much more that we need to do.”

The Government said a strong research programme is now being created to support this including “further development of our understanding of climate science, improved access to the science to help decision-makers understand risk better, more localised climate risk assessments, and improved measurement of adaptation enabling us to monitor progress better.”

CCC welcomes Government report - but warns "we are falling well behind"

The Climate Change Committee has welcomed the publication of the UK Government’s assessment of the risks and opportunities facing the UK from climate change.

However, Baroness Brown of Cambridge, Chair of the CCC’s Adaptation Committee, warned that agreeing on the risks is one thing – taking action to address them is another, commenting:

“Building resilience to a cocktail of climate impacts facing our country, including flooding, drought, heat exposure and extreme weather events, is a mammoth task and we’re falling well behind. We look forward to seeing the Government’s action plan to shift the dial and deliver a well-adapted UK.”

The new report made headline news within an hour of publication this morning. Commenting on BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, the BBC’s environment analyst Roger Harrabin said that the CCC had warned last year that the UK was “woefully unprepared for even a relatively small amount of climate change.”

 Click here to download the government's Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3)