A new research study, led and co-authored by scientists at the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, is warning that in a 3°C warming scenario, projections show there could be a threefold increase in heat-related mortality with respect to today.

The first pan-European assessment reveals that, even if current climate policies succeed in limiting the global temperature rise to 3°C, temperature-driven mortality may increase. Without additional adaptation measures, 55,000 additional deaths could occur annually by the end of this century. This 13.5% increase in temperature-related deaths stresses the cost of delaying climate action.

Currently excessively high or low temperatures cause 407,000 fatalities a year. Heat-related deaths, now six times more frequent in southern than in northern Europe, will occur 9.3 times more frequently in the south than in the north by 2100.

The results of the assessment, which is published in the Lancet Public Health journal, also reveal disparities in temperature-related mortality across Europe. Cold-related deaths presently occur 2.5 times more frequently in the east than in the west, with heat-related deaths being over six times more common in the south than in the north.

Notably, cold-related fatalities grossly outnumber heat-related ones: at present, the approximate ratio is 8.3 to 1. However, as global warming unfolds, projections show a surge in heat-related deaths bringing this ratio to 2.6 versus 1 for a 4°C temperature rise.

The main driving factors of such a shift are twofold: climate and demographic changes.

The new JRC research study investigates present and projected future excess mortality caused by temperature change in 1,368 European regions across 30 countries: EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. It considers age-specific characteristics and local socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities.

According to the study, some 363,500 people die annually from cold, while 43,700 die from excessive heat.

In a 3°C warming scenario, projections show there could be a threefold increase in heat-related mortality with respect to today. While heat-related deaths would increase across all regions, southern European regions can be expected to suffer the greatest additional burden.

In the 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths in Greece would increase annually from 1,730 today to 4,767, in France from 3,061 to 13,564, in Italy from 10,433 to 28,285, and in Spain from 4,414 to 20,194, according to the study.

Projected changes in heat-related deaths per 100,000 people (as compared to the baseline period 1991-2020) by the end of the century, for a +3°C global warming and projected population in 2100.

With a 3°C warming, the combined effects of climate and demographic changes may bring an additional 14.9 expected deaths per 100,000 people annually in Europe (from 98.7 for the period 1991-2020 to 113.6 in 2100). However, the impact varies greatly between regions, ranging from a decrease of 29 deaths in Latvia to an increase of 95 deaths in Malta.

By 2050 European hotspots of heightened risk of heat-related mortality will be primarily concentrated in the south

Places with marginally greater susceptibility such as ageing, greater hazard increase due to warming, or a combination of the two are expected to result in a higher mortality risk in the short-term future.

By 2050, European hotspots will be primarily concentrated in the south, particularly in regions in Spain, Italy, and Greece, but will also concern a substantial part of France. Regions in eastern Europe will face intensified warming but the mortality risk related to heat will be mitigated by the projected substantial decline in total mortality.

In northern Europe, summers will be warmer, but not lethal. These regions will become more vulnerable to extreme heat due to ageing population.

The scientists say the evidence can support policymakers and authorities to take action against unprecedented challenges to public health systems, particularly during periods of extreme heat and cold, by prioritising more vulnerable areas and communities.

Click here to read the article in full  Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study