The coastal floods of December 2013 caused significant damage to railway assets in North Wales, including more than 200m of the Mostyn sea wall which required emergency repair work by Network Rail.

The clean-up and ongoing rail operations was supported through the development of a coastal forecasting system, which provided Network Rail with early warning of extreme sea conditions which could bring about further damage to the Mostyn sea wall, leading to potential track failure.

Developed by JBA Consulting, the forecasting system, which is hosted on a bespoke website, provides 36 hours notice of expected water levels, surges and waves. The data is interrogated and applied to a series of parameters to determine if a watchman patrol is required with warnings presented on the website and an automated email sent to nominated individuals at Network Rail.  The patrol is then used to determine what actions should be taken.

 Warning information provided includes:

• The time at which any of the warning threshold criteria are forecasted to be exceeded.
• A summary of the condition criteria exceeded (e.g., sea-level, wind, wave, and/or some combination of these).
• The recommended time when the watchmen patrol should be undertaken.
• The next time when the forecast will be updated.

 The forecasting system was implemented as a priority following the Mostyn storm surges but will now continue to operate as part of Network Rail’s comprehensive coastal, flood and erosion forecasting system for the North Wales coastline.

Dan Rodger from JBA Consulting said the firm’s experience of developing coastal forecasting systems meant they were able to turn around a robust system in a very short time. The system will now Network Rail to fully understand and respond to the current and potential future risk to its rail assets.