Climate change, water shortages, cyber attack and disruptive technologies are among a number of key threats flagged up in the United States Intelligence Community’s 2018 assessment of threats to US national security published this week.

Introducing the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community 2018, Daniel R. Coats, the Director of National Intelligence said the effects of air pollution, inadequate water and climate change on human health and livelihood would become more noticeable and that challenges from urbanization and migration would persist.

Commenting on the environment and climate change, the paper says that the impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018.

“Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages. Research has not identified indicators of tipping points in climate-linked earth systems, suggesting a possibility of abrupt climate change.”

It also warns that accelerating biodiversity and species loss—driven by pollution, warming, unsustainable fishing, and acidifying oceans—will jeopardize vital ecosystems that support critical human systems.

Cyber attack and disruptive technologies

The report says that “the potential for surprise in the cyber realm will increase in the next year and beyond” as billions more digital devices are connected—with relatively little built-in security.

Warning that both nation states and “malign actors” will become "more emboldened" and better equipped in the use of increasingly widespread cyber toolkits, it also flags up the growing risk that some adversaries will conduct cyber attacks. eg data deletion or localized and temporary disruptions of critical infrastructure. 

New technologies and novel applications of existing technologies have the potential to disrupt labour markets and alter health, energy, and transportation systems, the report says. According to the Assessment, technology developments — for example, in the biotechnology and communications sectors—are likely to outpace regulation.

It also suggests that the widespread proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to prompt new national security concerns. Existing machine learning technology, for example, could enable high degrees of automation in labour-intensive activities such as satellite imagery analysis and cyber defence. In addition, “increasingly capable AI tools, which are often enabled by large amounts of data, are also likely to present socioeconomic challenges, including impacts on employment and privacy.”

Global shift to advanced ICT will increasingly test US competitiveness

The Assessment concludes that a global shift to advanced information and communications technologies (ICT) will increasingly test US competitiveness because aspiring suppliers around the world will play a larger role in developing new technologies and products.

The technologies include:

• nextgeneration,or 5G wireless technology;
• the internet of things;
• new financial technologies;
• enabling AI and big data for predictive analysis.

The report suggests that differences in regulatory and policy approaches to ICT-related issues could impede growth and innovation globally and for US companies.

Click here to download the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community 2018