The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has published a series of reports on future projections of water resource and demand in the UK.

Commissioned by DESNZ, Climate Services for a Net Zero Resilient World (CS-N0W) is a 4-year, £5.5 million research programme, that will use the latest scientific knowledge to inform UK climate policy and help meet global decarbonisation ambitions.

Future water resources: analysis of outputs discusses future projections of UK river flows impacted by water abstraction or discharge under different warming scenarios, up to 2080. This report presents a preliminary analysis of future water availability which focuses on artificially influenced river flows and aims to shed light on potential water availability challenges and inform decision-making processes at regional and national levels.

Future water resources: hydrological modelling and artificial influences presents the methods and modelling used to derive England-wide scenarios of Artificial Influence (AI)-impacted (through abstraction and discharge) river flows from 1980 to 2080 to support a national-scale assessment of future flow regimes and water resource scenarios.

Future water resources: stakeholder engagement report summarises the attendees, material presented, key outcomes and feedback gained from two online stakeholder events. These events were to inform key stakeholders of the modelling carried out to project future water resources for water intensive energy infrastructure, and to seek feedback.

Future water resources: approaches to construct scenarios of future water demand provides a literature review of future water demand projections in the UK, used to inform the formation of future water demand (abstraction and discharge) projections.

Three artificial influence (AI) scenarios, representing different water demand projections over the 21st century, were considered in this project.

• 'Sustainability' AI scenario
• 'Business as Usual' AI scenario
• 'Economic Growth' AI scenario

The analysis highlights the potential challenges for water-intensive energy infrastructure. Notably, the water consumption associated with hydrogen energy, favoured in the 'Sustainability' AI scenario that prioritises sustainability over economic growth, is high and contributes to the exacerbation of water scarcity during future droughts.

However, the report says it is worth noting that the impact of the changing climate on water availability outweighs the influence of any of the three AI scenarios considered. This emphasises the significance of considering both climate change and AI scenarios when assessing future water availability in a changing climate.

The preliminary findings offer some insights that could be considered by policymakers, water resource managers, and stakeholders in developing effective strategies for future water management, ensuring sustainability, and supporting decision-making processes at regional and national level.

The programme is being delivered by a consortium of world leading research institutions from across the UK led by Ricardo. Research partners include the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, including the Universities of East Anglia, Manchester and Newcastle; institutes supported by the Natural Environment Research Council, including the British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, National Centre for Earth Observation, National Oceanography Centre, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and University College London.