The Scottish Environment Protection Agency is warning that some rivers in the east of Scotland are once again approaching critical low flow levels, and a number of areas are around two weeks away from potential Significant Scarcity.

SEPA’s weekly Water Scarcity Report shows that:

• Six river catchments remain at Moderate Scarcity – the Deveron, Ythan, Don (Aberdeenshire), Esk, Firth of Tay and Tyne (Lothian).
• There are now six catchments at Alert, with the Almond and Tweed joining Findhorn, Spey, Dee (Aberdeenshire) and Firth of Forth.
• Orkney, Thurso and Clyde catchments have been raised to Early Warning.
• There are currently no restrictions on abstraction licence holders.

Sustained low flows

This is the third time that parts of eastern Scotland have been approaching Significant Scarcity in 2025. The first was in May during a dry spell of hot, dry weather and it happened again in July after several weeks of high temperatures and little rain. On both occasions rainfall arrived just before regulatory action was required. However, river flows in these areas have never fully recovered to normal, leaving them vulnerable to the current conditions.

Following a very dry autumn and winter, rivers entered spring with below-average levels. A dry spring and summer have compounded the situation. While the west is mostly back to normal conditions following rain at the start of June, rivers in the east remain particularly vulnerable due to the rain shadow effect and the way these rivers are fed by snowmelt and groundwater. Some eastern catchments experience rainfall levels similar to East Anglia, leaving them more susceptible to prolonged low flows.

Recent rain has not been enough to offset months of low rainfall and high evaporation. In some areas, river levels remain well below what is typical for the time of year and the ground is dry, meaning much of the water from showers and downpours runs off quickly rather than soaking in.

Assessing water scarcity

SEPA uses a combination of river flows, soil moisture, and groundwater data to determine water scarcity levels of Early Warning, Alert and Moderate Scarcity.

To identify the most severe situations, SEPA uses DRAT (Drought Risk Assessment Tool) stations, which monitor river flows closely. If a DRAT station shows that river flow is at Q95 - a recognised low-flow threshold in hydrology - for 30 consecutive days the catchment is classified as experiencing Significant Scarcity. This science-led approach is used to track environmental conditions and help prevent lasting harm to rivers, lochs and the ecosystems that depend on them. 

If conditions do not improve and these areas move to Significant Scarcity, SEPA will need to take regulatory action. Measures may include limiting or temporarily suspending abstractions where necessary. These decisions will be based on sound science and environmental monitoring, including recognised hydrological low-flow thresholds based on river flow records that span decades. Restrictions will only be in place for the shortest time possible.

SEPA continues to engage with abstraction licence holders to ensure that those in affected areas are informed and prepared. Everyone from farmers and producers to industry and manufacturers are urged to use water efficiently and manage this shared resource responsibly. Advice is available on SEPA’s website, as well as from SEPA staff contacting abstractors with licences in areas at risk.

Eilidh Johnston, SEPA’s Senior Manager in Water Industry and Rural Economy, said:

“Rivers in eastern Scotland remain under sustained pressure. Approaching Significant Scarcity for the third time this year in some areas highlights the vulnerability of eastern Scotland's water environment. We understand that after such a long period the message may feel repetitive, and it's easy to assume that rainfall will arrive in time to ease the pressure as it has before. But there's no guarantee that will happen this time. That's why it's vital that businesses continue to stay engaged, understand conditions in their area and take action where needed.

“Throughout the spring and summer, we’ve been working closely with abstractors in the areas most at risk - including calling licence holders directly. We’ll also continue to work with organisations like NFUS, Scotch Whisky Association and Scottish Golf to ensure advice is shared and impacts are understood. Clear, early communication continues to be provided, so no one is caught off guard.

“We know how important water is to the Scottish economy, particularly sectors like farming, food and drink, and energy. We also know that without a healthy water environment those sectors cannot thrive. As an effective regulator, our role is to balance the needs of businesses with the health of the environment they rely on. It is crucial that these environments do not become so stressed that they struggle to recover, which would reduce the water resources available to those businesses in the long term.”

SEPA continues to urge all abstractors from farmers and producers to industry and manufacturers to use water efficiently and manage this shared resource responsibly. SEPA staff are contacting abstractors with licences in areas at risk and advice is available on SEPA’s website sepa.org.uk/waterscarcity.