The World Weather Attribution service, which specialises in rapid attribution studies on the relationship between extreme weather events and climate change, is warning that climate change is increasing the likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain.

Photo: Wildfires in Spain July 2026 Credit - Unidad Militar de Emergencias

After months of drought and periods of extreme heat, Western Europe is battling widespread and intense wildfires. At the time of writing (July 30th 2026) the most severe fires are affecting southwestern France and central and eastern Spain. Firefighters in both countries have been supported by aircraft and emergency personnel deployed through the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism as authorities work to contain the blazes.

In France, the fires originated near the Atlantic coast on 22 and 23 July but have since spread inland, becoming particularly destructive in the Gironde department around Bordeaux. The Gironde fire has so far burned approximately 40,000 ha, the second largest area of land devastated by a single wildfire in France since the Second World War.

This region includes a large expanse of man-made woodland, dominated by > 800,000 ha of intensively managed maritime pine monocultures. The fuel structure of these high-density plantations included abundant needle-leaf litter, ‘ladder fuels’ connecting the ground and canopy, volatile oils supporting flashy combustion and connected canopies allowing canopy fire (known as crown fire). This meant the fires could spread very rapidly. The fire generated a pyrocumulonimbus, or fire-driven thunderstorm, creating abundant lightning and high winds that exacerbated the speed of fire propagation.

At least 240 homes have been destroyed, with many more damaged, while around 220,000 residents and tourists were evacuated as the fires continue to threaten forests, highly touristic and iconic areas, as well as sensitive economic activities and surrounding communities. The French Minister of the Interior, Laurent Nuñez, declared on 26 July that a record area of around 115,000 ha had burned in France since the beginning of the year (NY Times, 2026).

In Spain, between 13 and 28 July 2026, around 140,000 ha were burnt, mainly as a result of three major fires: Ávila–Madrid–Toledo (central Spain, west of Madrid); Guadalajara (central Spain, northeast of Madrid); and Castellón (east Spain). The fire in Ávila, which was ignited following negligent use of heavy machinery and has burnt 44,000 ha, is now “the largest and most destructive fire in Spain’s history”, according to the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska while, the fires in La Mierla (province of Guadalajara) have burnt 35,000 ha, making it the third worst fire in Spain’s recent history.

As of July 28th, the fires have led to more than 80,000 people being evacuated and nearly 100,000 being advised to stay indoors due to poor air quality (El País, 2026).

In Spain, January 2026 was the wettest January of the last quarter of a century. In particular, in the area affected by the Ávila–Madrid–Toledo fire, rainfall was 175% higher than usual, which allowed a great accumulation of plant biomass. The summer of 2026 began with record-breaking temperatures and a severe drought, both conditions exacerbated by human-caused climate change This sequence resulted in high fuel loads that then dried to become highly flammable, increasing the intensity of the fires. According to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), this summer is proving to be the hottest on record in Spain.

In 2025, WWA conducted two rapid attribution studies on fires in Spain and Portugal and Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece, alongside a retrospective analysis of the entire wildfire season in several European regions. Its analysis of the affected regions in Spain identified the role of “weather whiplash”, a pattern of unusually wet springs followed by hot, dry summers which promotes abundant vegetation growth that subsequently dries out, creating large amounts of highly flammable fuel and increasing wildfire risk.

Across all three studies, WWA found that human-caused climate change was a key driver of the fire weather conditions, primarily through its influence on exceptionally high temperatures, but also by exacerbating drought conditions.