Jonathan Grant, Sustainability & Climate Change Director at PwC, provides a  pre-COP21 briefing ahead of the upcoming UN Climate Summit in Paris.

Jonathan Grant: Like Schrodinger’s poor cat, which exists in a quantum state being both alive and dead at the same time, it is reasonable to say that COP21 is both a success and a failure.  Schrodinger devised his infamous thought experiment to counter the ‘Copenhagen interpretation’ of quantum mechanics which suggests a particle can exist in all states until observed.  He was arguing that in the ‘real world’ of course the cat couldn’t be both alive and dead at the same time.

Although they fail to reach two degrees, pledges by governments and business show that the Paris summit has already succeeded in provoking a tangible shift in action and attitudes.  All that’s needed now is an agreement. 

Little progress in Bonn (again)

Negotiators start the climate talks in Paris, on 30th November, where they left off at the last negotiating session in Bonn in October – with a 54 page long draft text.  Those talks in Bonn were a step in the wrong direction as countries reinserted most of their historic positions into the short skeleton text drafted by the co-chairs.  Not only did the text balloon from 20 to over 50 pages, but there was no convergence on any of the substantive options.  Negotiators are unwilling to compromise before COPs, given the links between the different issues and the absence of real political pressure which only comes from the hard deadline of a summit. 

The COP routine

So the stage is set for the typical rhythm of a COP: negotiation, frustration, crisis, a shorter text.  In the first week, the major sections of the draft will be discussed by different subgroups.  The text can’t be negotiated as a whole because it is too long, has too many options and is only marginally less complicated than quantum mechanics.  It is doubtful that there will be much progress in first few days.  Frustration will increase until a point, where countries ask the co-chairs and then the Presidency of the talks to draft a shorter ‘balanced’ document that reflects the concerns of all countries.  The trick will be to develop the new drafts in a seemingly open and inclusive manner in order to keep everyone on board and avoid any ‘Danish Text’ scandal.

The process will be repeated until everyone is equally happy, or equally unhappy, with the Agreement.    At that point, it is likely to be short.  The Copenhagen Accord was only two and a quarter pages long on the final Saturday morning at the conclusion of those talks.  It is unlikely that many binding commitments will remain in the draft – there will be far fewer “shall(s)” than “should(s)”. 

Three risks

With 195 countries participating, there is always the risk of failure.  There are three main risks to the talks.  First, is the ‘Copenhagen risk’ that the talks and drafting process are mishandled by the Presidency to the point that countries are alienated and walk away.  Secondly, there is ‘Kyoto risk’, in that the deal agreed in Paris collapses when it arrives back in national capitals.  The prospect of black and white differentiation between developed and developing countries raises this risk.  And thirdly, there is ‘feebleness risk’ which results from the attempt to manage the first two risks.  This could produce an agreement that is so flimsy that a group of countries walk away saying that ‘nothing is better than something’.

But many well-seasoned commentators are positive that there will be a deal at the end of the COP, even though it might not be a particularly ambitious one.  Even this is likely to accelerate the low carbon transition as national legislators gain confidence that other countries are also taking action.

Even when we leave Paris at the end summit, it will still be hard to know whether the cat is alive or not – though Schrodinger might say it was definitely one or the other.  It will probably be fair to say that COP21 is a qualified success provided there is an agreement at the end of it.  But the deal will need to be durable, to withstand shifting national politics, and it will need to support financial and technical cooperation, and gradually raise ambition by all countries.  Success or not will only really be observable late in the next decade.