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Tuesday, 09 May 2017 11:46

Drought on the horizon for the UK?

Yesterday saw the widespread publication of reports in the national press and media flagging up the prospect of drought looming on the horizon for the UK.

The reports followed on from the publication by the Met Offfice of the latest monthly rainfall statistics for April.

The UK as a whole has seen just 47% of the average April rainfall (6% up on the figure on 26 April). Scotland has been the wettest area with 65mm (up from 62.5mm record to the 26 April) and southern England the driest area with 16mm (up from 8.1mm record to the 26 April).

Middlesex, Mid Lothian and Fife were the driest historical counties this month with just 12% of the rainfall expected in April.  In comparison Sutherland was the wettest with rainfall 36% above average.

The lowest rainfall totals of anywhere in the UK last month were in Edinburgh (Gogarbank at only 3.2 mm and Botanic Gardens with 4 mm – 7% and 10% of average respectively), closely followed by London (Hampton at  3.8 mm and St James park at 4.2mm, both 9% of average).

While overall it has been a sunny and warm April, the last weekend in the month saw heavy rainfall for parts of the country, bringing about a change to the end of month statistics.

The timing of just one weather system can make a big difference to monthly rainfall statistics. On 30 April parts of Devon had around 60% of the rainfall expected for the whole month, pushing the statistics closer to the monthly average overall. If that rain had arrived just one day later the statistics would be rather different.

The preliminary mid-month statistics posted by the Met Office on 19th April showed  that all regions in the UK, except northern Scotland, had at that point experienced well under half of their average rainfall for the full month of April; the UK as a whole had just over a quarter (26%) when compared with the average for the whole month. At the mid-month point the normally expectation is for around 57% of the full month average. The south of England has seen the least rainfall compared to its long-term average (1981–2010) with Middlesex being the historic county with the lowest rainfall volume: just 1mm.

Up till 19th April seven other English counties had seen only five per cent or less of the average rainfall for the whole of April so far: Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire and Wiltshire. The wettest English historic county is Cumberland, where just over 20mm of rain had fallen, just over a quarter (26%) of the anticipated total for the month.

Commenting on the dry weather, an Environment Agency spokesperson said:

 “Following a dry winter, some rivers, groundwaters and reservoirs are lower than normal for the time of year. We always advise that everyone use water wisely – especially during a period of dry weather – and to follow the advice of their water company should water saving measures be required. The Environment Agency, water companies, businesses and farmers are working together to minimise any potential impacts to people and the environment should the dry weather continue.”

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