The government is urging water companies not to lose momentum and carry on water efficiency measures until the drought is over, as research shows above-average rainfall needed to end drought by April 2027.

New research has shown 120% of typical rainfall is needed over the next seven months for all areas in England to be considered out of drought.

The National Drought Group, which includes the government, Met Office, regulators, water companies, farmers, Canal & River Trust, anglers, and conservation experts, is now meeting weekly to monitor the situation and coordinate action as part of the heightened incident response.

Public water supply was the focus of the latest Group meeting where water company chief executives gave updates on their leakage reduction plus autumn and winter preparedness.

There were no changes in status, with almost three-quarters of England remaining in drought after an exceptionally dry spring and summer, alongside a succession of heatwaves.

Drought is only over when rivers, groundwaters and reservoirs are back to normal levels – and the latter two continue to recede.

After attending the meeting on Tuesday, Water Minister Emma Hardy said:

“The recent rainfall is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used over the last six months, and I will be carefully monitoring the actions of water companies which will be vital as we go through the autumn.

“They need to maintain momentum. We expect to see leaks fixed quickly, drought plans followed without delay and continued work to reduce demand to help avoid any further restrictions.

“Long-term resilience is a priority for this government, and we are working with water companies and regulators on nine major reservoirs to secure future supplies.”

Actions by the Government include changes in the Planning and Infrastructure Act to enable to non-water sector companies to build reservoirs that are automatically considered as nationally significant infrastructure projects, which will speed up the approvals for new reservoirs.

It is also continuing cross-government work on resilience to extreme weather, such as droughts, flooding and wildfires.

At the meeting, the Environment Agency presented data looking at potential rainfall scenarios over the coming seven months.

The outlook for wetter weather in autumn is set to bring some relief to most drought-hit areas; however even in the most likely weather scenario Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia are expected to still be in drought by the start of April 2027.

There is roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of the country will still be in drought next spring – and currently around a 1% chance of a severe drought in the coming months. The risks will depend on future rainfall – the country has not seen a severe drought since 1976.

However, the driest July and joint-hottest August on record (including five summer heatwaves) resulted in an enormous strain on supplies, with demand for water increasing by as much as 30% on the hottest days.

The Met Office is forecasting the second half of September will see a return to drier conditions, particularly in the south where the rain is needed the most.

Environment Agency Chief Executive Philip Duffy, who chaired the meeting, said:

“The drought situation remains very serious, and we cannot underestimate the challenge ahead over the coming months.

“Several reservoirs are concerningly low, and we need water companies to take every action possible to secure water supplies going into next year, including stepping up on leakage reduction and following their drought plans.

“Water supplies are limited and we continue to balance the needs of agriculture, public water supply and our environment.

“A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer. We still need everyone’s else to use a little less water to speed up the drought recovery.”