Investment in green power must be trebled in order for the world to avoid dangerous climate change, according to a new report by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC).

The IPPC report Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change shows that global emissions of greenhouse gases have risen to unprecedented levels despite a growing number of policies to reduce climate change. Emissions grew more quickly between 2000 and 2010 than in each of the three previous decades.

 According to the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, it would be possible, using a wide array of technological measures and changes in behaviour, to limit the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, only major institutional and technological change will give a better than even chance that global warming will not exceed this threshold.

 The report is the third of three Working Group reports, which, along with a Synthesis Report due in October 2014, constitute the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report on climate change.

 Ottmar Edenhofe, one of the Working Group’s Co-Chairs commented:

“Climate policies in line with the two degrees Celsius goal need to aim for substantial emission reductions.  There is a clear message from science: To avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, we need to move away from business as usual.”

 Scenarios show that to have a likely chance of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius, means lowering global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70 percent compared with 2010 by mid-century, and to near-zero by the end of this century. Ambitious mitigation may even require removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

 Scientific literature confirms that even less ambitious temperature goals would still require similar emissions reductions.

“Many different pathways lead to a future within the boundaries set by the two degrees Celsius goal,” Edenhofer continued. “All of these require substantial investments. Avoiding further delays in mitigation and making use of a broad variety of technologies can limit the associated costs.”

 Estimates of the economic costs of mitigation vary widely. In business-as-usual scenarios, consumption grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per year. Ambitious mitigation would reduce this growth by around 0.06 percentage points a year. However, the underlying estimates do not take into account the economic benefits of reduced climate change.

Since the last IPCC assessment report was published in 2007, a wealth of new knowledge about climate change mitigation has emerged.

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires emissions reductions from energy production and use, transport, buildings, industry, land use, and human settlements.

The report says that cutting emissions from electricity production to near zero is a common feature of ambitious mitigation scenarios. – but using energy efficiently is also important.

Ramón Pichs—Madruger, one of the other Co-Chairs, commented :

It can also increase the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures. Reducing energy use would give us more flexibility in the choice of low-carbon energy technologies, now and in the future.

Since publication of the Fourth Assessment Report there has been a focus on climate policies designed to increase co-benefits and reduce adverse side-effects.

Land is another key component for the 2°C goal. Slowing deforestation and planting forests have stopped or even reversed the increase in emissions from land use.

Edenhofer said that while climate change is a global commons problem and international cooperation is key for achieving mitigation goals, putting in place the international institutions needed for cooperation is a challenge in itself.

 The Working Group III report consists of the Summary for Policymakers released today, a more detailed Technical Summary, the underlying 16 chapters, and three annexes. The Working Group III Summary for Policymakers, full report and further information are available at www.mitigation2014.org and www.ipcc.ch. The full report will be available from tomorrow.