The National Infrastructure Commission for Wales has set out its priorities for the coming year with the publication of its first annual report, alonside the launch of a Call for Evidence as it develops a future infrastructure plan for Wales.

The NICW was established in 2018 to advise and make recommendations to Welsh Ministers on Wales’ economic and environmental infrastructure needs over the next five to thirty years.

In its first year, the commission has taken an overall view of the current state of Wales’ infrastructure and gained some understanding of how changes in the economy, the environment and technology will demand new forms of infrastructure.

It has identified decarbonisation, connectivity and resilience as the key themes which will run through its work. Commenting on resilience, according to the NICW flooding poses the greatest long-term risk to infrastructure performance from climate change, but the growing risks from heat, water scarcity and slope instability caused by severe weather could be significant. The report says:

“To maintain the resilience of our infrastructure, investments in infrastructure assets will need to take account of climate risks. As part of our work we will consider the resource implications of maintaining resilience.”

The scale and shape of newer threats to infrastructure – from climate change and cyber security – are still emerging but “both will be significant”, the NICW concludes.

The development of the body’s infrastructure plan is in its early stages but the NICW has reached some provisional views for which it now seeks evidence. The Commission has launched a Call for Evidence alongside its annual report inviting all interested parties to submit their views and evidence on key issues. 

Marine energy generation in Wales among ten key issues

The NICW has identified ten key issues on which it will focus in the coming year, including the potential for commercial scale cost effective marine energy generation in Wales and the measures that are required to realise it. The Commission is seeking evidence on what proportion of Wales’ electricity needs could be met by marine sources by 2030? It also wants to explore whether the potential economic benefits, in terms of jobs and investment in Wales, should be offset against potentially higher costs of marine energy for consumers.

On energy: the commission seeks further evidence on how to rapidly improve the relationship between Wales’ energy grid and the future growth of renewable energy, including innovations in energy storage, electrical engineering, the planning system, and other government interventions.

Longer term considerations include water resources. flooding and coastal erosion risks

At present, the NICW is only seeking evidence in relation to the key issues it has identified for the coming year. In the longer term, the Commission will consider other aspects of its remit including water resources and flood risk management.

Over 60% of the Welsh population live and work on the coast, while over 245,000 properties in Wales are at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea and surface water. Almost 400 properties are also at risk from coastal erosion.

The report points out that predicted sea level rise for Wales by 2100, relative to 2019 levels, is between 0.8m and 1.6m and that similarly, flood risk from rivers is expected to increase due to climate change. Current estimates predict a 20-70% increase in river flood flows by 2070.

“Where flooding cannot be prevented, we may need to plan to enable coastal towns to roll-back in a managed way, “ the report says.

The NICW report also warns that freshwater flood risk is changing, with increased rainfall intensity expected, causing higher flood levels more frequently. Key questions the Commission will seek to address in the longer term include:

• How can we work better with natural processes to reduce flood risk?
• Can we increase the role of flood resilience (i.e. measures to reduce flood damage experienced at properties in a flood event) in areas where defences cannot provide value for money?

Water resources - "we may need to be prepared for debate about more water transfers in future”

According to the NICW, like other sectors, the water industry in Wales faces challenges of decarbonisation and climate change and it does not underestimate “the difficulty of sustaining water supply and drainage in the event of increasingly extreme weather events bringing both flood and drought.”

However, it acknowledges that Wales “does not seem to be facing” the water shortages anticipated in South East England for example” , suggesting “we may need to be prepared for debate about more water transfers in future.”

Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water abstracts around 3% of annual effective rainfall for public supply, compared to around 50% in the south and east of England.

The report says that growing urban centres need more water, drainage and sewerage while dispersed rural communities result in many small water processing assets to be maintained. “Improvements to water infrastructure need to be balanced against the cost to the consumer, with prices in Wales already relatively high when compared to other parts of GB,” the report concludes.

Commenting on changing trends, the report says there has been a shift from public to private sector provision in infrastructure, particularly in telecommunications and energy, but without a dominant model emerging. The report says:

“It is not impossible that this trend could be reversed. The not-for-profit model operated by Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water provides an interesting alternative. “

It also points out that many rural households are “experienced at managing” without connections to gas, sewerage and water networks, and that more recently, self-generation of energy, community broadband and sustainable drainage systems have been shown to work in some places.

According to the NICW decentralisation may become an increasing trend for certain services.

Commenting on the report, Interim Chair of the NICW, John Lloyd Jones, OBE, said:

“This report sets out our early thinking and identifies priorities for further investigation. But we must stress that this is still early in the process and we will not rush to make recommendations to the Welsh Ministers until we have found compelling evidence for infrastructure solutions.”

The NICW will set out a plan for Wales’ infrastructure in its first “state of the nation” report by November 2021 to enable the Welsh Government to develop an affordable strategy for infrastructure needs.

The Call for Evidence is open from now until 27 March 2020.

Click here to download the NICW Annual Report

Click here to access the Call for Evidence paper