The World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations authoritative voice on weather, climate and water, is warning that the already strong El Niño expected to intensify as much of the world faces above normal temperatures and major changes in rainfall patterns.

In its latest update released on 31 July, WMO said El Niño is continuing to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns.

Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the developing El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across many parts of the world in the months ahead.

WMO’s monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Niño will continue to steadily intensify into a strong event during August–October 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions.

The WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said:

“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas. Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop. More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future. Unless we act – to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis – the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event.”

The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO’s full El Niño/La Niña Update (next to be issued in early Sept). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Niño.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.

Temperature 0utlook

The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas. The strongest signals of this trend extend across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand. Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific continues to reflect the footprint of the intensifying El Niño event.

Rainfall outlook

The August–October 2026 rainfall outlook exhibits patterns of a classic, strong El Niño event. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa; parts of Central Asia; Southern Europe; Western North America (south of 45°N); and Southeastern South America. In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over The Indian subcontinent; Southern and eastern Australia; Southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean; Northwestern South America; and Northern Europe.