A new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report is warning even if all current unconditional commitments under the Paris Agreement are implemented, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.2°C, bringing ever more wide-ranging and destructive climate impacts. 

On the eve of a year in which nations are due to strengthen their Paris climate pledges, UNEP's annual Emissions Gap Report says that unless global greenhouse gas emissions fall by 7.6 per cent each year between 2020 and 2030, the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

Collective ambition must increase more than fivefold over current levels to cut global emissions by 7.6 per cent every year for the next decade in order to meet the 1.5°C Paris target, UNEP says.

"For ten years, the Emissions Gap Report has been sounding the alarm – and for ten years, the world has only increased its emissions,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “There has never been a more important time to listen to the science. Failure to heed these warnings and take drastic action to reverse emissions means we will continue to witness deadly and catastrophic heatwaves, storms and pollution.”

Referring to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warning that going beyond 1.5°C will increase the frequency and intensity of climate impacts, the report says:

"The challenge is clear. The recent IPCC special reports clearly describe the dire consequences of inaction and are backed by record temperatures worldwide along with enhanced extreme events."

"Collective failure to act early and hard on climate change means we now must deliver deep cuts to emissions"

Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director commented:

“Our collective failure to act early and hard on climate change means we now must deliver deep cuts to emissions – over 7 per cent each year, if we break it down evenly over the next decade” 

“This shows that countries simply cannot wait until the end of 2020, when new climate commitments are due, to step up action. They – and every city, region, business and individual – need to act now.”

“We need quick wins to reduce emissions as much as possible in 2020, then stronger Nationally Determined Contributions to kick-start the major transformations of economies and societies. We need to catch up on the years in which we procrastinated,” she added. “If we don’t do this, the 1.5°C goal will be out of reach before 2030.”

G20 nations collectively account for 78 per cent of all emissions, but only five G20 members have committed to a long-term zero emissions target.

In the short-term, UNEP says that developed countries will have to reduce their emissions quicker than developing countries, for reasons of fairness and equity. However, all countries will need to contribute more to collective effects.

"Dramatic strengthening" of Nationally Determined Contributions needed in 2020

Crucially, the report says all nations must substantially increase ambition in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as the Paris commitments are known, in 2020 and follow up with policies and strategies to implement them. Solutions are available to make meeting the Paris goals possible, but they are not being deployed fast enough or at a sufficiently large scale, the report says.

Dramatic strengthening of the NDCs is needed in 2020, according to the report - countries must increase their NDC ambitions threefold to achieve the well below 2°C goal and more than fivefold to achieve the 1.5°C goal.

Currently, the ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement foresees strengthening of NDCs every five years, with 2020 highlighted as a critical nextstep in this process, inviting countries to communicate or update their NDCs by this time. However, the report warns:

“Given the time lag between policy decisions and associated emissionreductions, waiting until 2025 to strengthen NDCs willbe too late to close the large 2030 emissions gap.”

Climate protection and adaptation investments will require “unprecedented efforts to transform societies, economies, infrastructures and governance institutions.” At the same time, deep and rapid decarbonization processes also imply "fundamental structural changes" are needed within economic sectors, firms, labour markets and trade patterns.

“By necessity, this will see profound change in how energy, food and other material-intensive services are demanded and provided by governments, businesses and markets,” the report says.

Deep-rooted shifts in values, norms, consumer culture and world views are also “inescapably part of the great sustainability transformation” which is needed.

Emissions hit new high of 55.3 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2018

Each year, the Emissions Gap Report assesses the gap between anticipated emissions in 2030 and levels consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C targets of the Paris Agreement. The report finds that greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 per cent per year over the last decade. Emissions in 2018, including from land-use changes such as deforestation, hit a new high of 55.3 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

To limit temperatures, annual emissions in 2030 need to be 15 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent lower than current unconditional NDCs imply for the 2°C goal; they need to be 32 gigatonnes lower for the 1.5°C goal. On an annual basis, this means cuts in emissions of 7.6 per cent per year from 2020 to 2030 to meet the 1.5°C goal and 2.7 per cent per year for the 2°C goal.

To deliver on these cuts, the levels of ambition in the NDCs must increase at least fivefold for the 1.5°C goal and threefold for the 2°C.

The report, which focuses each year on the potential of selected sectors to deliver emissions cuts, says that climate change can still be limited to 1.5°C.

This year it looks at the energy transition and the potential of efficiency in the use of materials, which it says can go a long way to closing the emissions gap.

Click here to download the full Emissions Gap Report