A new report published today by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) is warning the Government that the UK is struggling to keep pace with climate change impacts.

Action to improve the nation’s resilience is failing to keep pace with the impacts of a warming planet and increasing climate risks facing the UK. That is the conclusion of a comprehensive independent assessment led by the CCC, the Government’s independent adviser on climate change, which considered a catalogue of risks and opportunities affecting every aspect of life in the UK.

The Committee says that alarmingly, the new evidence shows that the gap between the level of risk faced and the level of adaptation underway has widened and that adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk.

The Assessment concludes that progress with adaptation policy and implementation is not keeping up with the rate of increase in climate risk and that the risks to all aspects of life in the UK have increased over the last 5 years.

The UK is experiencing widespread changes in the climate; average land temperature has risen by around 1.2°C from pre-industrial levels, UK sea levels have risen by 16cm since 1900 and episodes of extreme heat are becoming more frequent.

Since the CCC’s last assessment 5 years ago, over 570,000 new homes have been built that are not resilient to future high temperatures and since 2018 over 4,000 heat-related deaths have been recorded in England, the report says.

The CCC says that people, nature, and infrastructure are already vulnerable to a range of climate impacts today and these will only increase in the coming years as the climate continues to change, commenting:

“The longer action to address these risks is delayed, the higher the costs the Government and the UK public will face.“

Adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk

The Committee’s key messages are:

New evidence shows that the gap between the level of risk we face and the level of adaptation underway has widened. Adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk.

In its advice the Committee identify eight risk areas that require the most urgent attention in the next two years. They have been selected on the basis of the urgency of additional action, the gap in UK adaptation planning, the opportunity to integrate adaptation into forthcoming policy commitments and the need to avoid locking in poor planning, especially as we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Committee also report on the full set of 61 risks and opportunities which must be considered in the next set of National Adaptation Plans, due from 2023 - published as a separate Technical Report setting out the full analysis of the 61 climate change risks for the UK.

The Committee is recommending ten principles for good adaptation planning that should form the basis for the next round of national adaptation plans. These are intended to bring adaptation into mainstream consideration by government and business.

Launching the report, Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee said:

“The severity of the risks we face must not be underestimated. These risks will not disappear as the world moves to Net Zero; many of them are already locked in. By better understanding and preparing for the coming changes, the UK can prosper, protecting its people, its economy, and its natural environment. A detailed, effective action plan that prepares the UK for climate change is now essential and needed urgently.”

UK-wide, nearly 60% of the risks and opportunities assessed in the 1500-page report have been given the highest urgency score. The eight priority risk areas identified by the CCC which need immediate attention, at the latest in the next two years, are:

• Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multiple hazards
• Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought
• Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards, leading to increased emissions
• Risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees from multiple climate hazards
• Risks to supply of food, goods and vital services due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks
• Risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system
• Risks to human health, wellbeing and productivity from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings
• Multiple risks to the UK from climate change impacts overseas

"Government has to date not heeded the CCC’s advice on the importance of this plan or on funding it adequately"

Commenting on the role of Government, the report says:

“ It must deliver a much better action plan to support good adaptation planning across the UK and integrate this into all relevant Government plans and policies. The Government has to date not heeded the CCC’s advice on the importance of this plan or on funding it adequately. This needs to change.”

However, the CCC warns that Net Zero alone is not enough and reducing climate impacts requires both emissions reduction and adaptation. The UK will face significant further changes in climate to 2050 and beyond, even if the world is on a Paris-aligned emissions trajectory. By 2050 the heatwave summer of 2018 will be a typical summer, summer rainfall could fall by as much as 24% and winter rainfall increase by as much as,16%, changes that will impact our well-being, the natural environment and the economy.

Loss of peatlands could dramatically increase UK emissions

UK peatlands are one of the most important terrestrial natural stores for carbon, estimated to store the equivalent of around 11,700 (± 1,100) MtCO2 – over 25 times larger than the UK’s total current annual emissions and an order of magnitude higher than the carbon stored in trees.

However, the area of land suitable for peatforming vegetation in the uplands could decline by between 50% and 65% by the 2050s through the effects of climate change alone, potentially dramatically increasing UK emissions.

Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, Climate Change Committee said:

”Without action on adaptation we will struggle to deliver key Government and societal goals, including Net Zero itself. We cannot rely on nature to sequester carbon unless we ensure that our peat, our trees and our wetlands are healthy, not only today but under the climatic conditions we will experience in the future.”

UK "not prepared for unprecedented extreme weather events that could occur now"

According to the CCC, the UK is not prepared for unprecedented extreme weather events that could occur now. There is already a 1% risk each year that monthly winter UK rainfall could be 20-30% higher than the maximum ever observed. The chance of daily maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºC is also growing.

Lack of adaptation over the past five years has also led to lock-in, irreversible changes and higher future costs for the Government.

Since CCRA2 was published, over 570,000 new homes have been built in England alone that are not resilient to future high temperatures. These will require costly retrofit to make them safe, habitable and water efficient in the future. In the next five years, at least another 1.5 million homes are due to be built across the UK; these will also lock in increased climate vulnerability unless planning and building policy is changed now, the report warns

The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) was led by the Climate Change Committee and involved over 450 experts from 130 organisations to provide a comprehensive view of UK climate change to inform the Government’s third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3 Government Report) and the next UK and devolved National Adaptation Plans.

Click here to download the CCC’s Third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk

Click here to download the CCC's Technical Report of Third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk