United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is warning that the world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating.

The UN Chief was commenting in a statement issued in response to a new report by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on the Nationally Determined Contributions of all Parties to the Paris Agreement.

The NDC Synthesis Report published on 17 September indicates that while there is a clear trend that greenhouse gas emissions are being reduced over time, nations must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2C – ideally 1.5C – by the end of the century.

The Synthesis Report was requested by Parties to the Paris Agreement to assist them in assessing the progress of climate action ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow, Scotland.

The report contains some worrying findings. The available NDCs of all 191 Parties taken together imply a sizable increase in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, of about 16%. According to the latest IPCC findings, such an increase, unless actions are taken immediately, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century.

António Guterres said the report shows that the world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7-degrees of heating, breaking the promise made six years ago to pursue the 1.5-degree Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement. “Failure to meet this goal will be measured in the massive loss of lives and livelihoods,” he said.

He explained:

“Science tells that we need a 45 per cent cut in emissions by 2030 to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century. Today’s report implies an increase of 16 per cent in emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels.”  

The statement says that the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was a code red for humanity. However, it also made clear that it is not too late to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5-degree target. According to the Secretary General, while we have the tools needed to achieve this, we are rapidly running out of time.

He went on to call for all nations should submit a more ambitious NDC before COP 26 takes place that will help to place the world on a 1.5-degree pathway.

He also emphasised that developed nations needed to finally deliver on the US100 billion commitment promised over a decade ago in support to developing countries.

“The Climate Finance report published today by the OECD shows that this goal has not been reached either,” he said.

“It is time for leaders to stand and deliver, or people in all countries will pay a tragic price,” he concluded.

However, in a separate speech on 17^th September to the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, António Guterres expressed pessimism for the prospects of success at the upcoming climate change conference in Glsasgow, saying “there is a high risk of failure of COP26.”

Click here to download Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement - Synthesis report