The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 says the biggest short-term risk stems from misinformation and disinformation, while in the longer term, climate-related threats dominate the top 10 risks global populations will face.

Two-thirds of global experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order to take shape over the next decade.

According to the report, the cascading shocks that have beset the world in recent years are proving intractable. War and conflict, polarized politics, a continuing cost-of-living crisis and the ever-increasing impacts of a changing climate are destabilizing the global order.

The key findings of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 reflect these as the most pressing challenges faced by people in every region of the world.

A pessimistic global outlook

The report reveals a world “plagued by a duo of dangerous crises: climate and conflict” with the threats set against a backdrop of rapidly accelerating technological change and economic uncertainty.

The findings are based on the Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey, which gathers insights from nearly 1,500 global experts from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society.

Optimism among respondents was in short supply with more than half (54%) anticipating a significant degree of instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes. Another 30% see things getting even worse, envisioning looming global catastrophes and with a “stormy” or “turbulent” period ahead in the next two years.

Looking out to 10 years and the pessimism among respondents grows - by 2034, almost two-thirds (63%) predict a stormy or turbulent world order.

Breaking down the risks

While climate-related risks remain a dominant theme, the threat from misinformation and disinformation is identified as the most severe short-term threat in the 2024 report.

The growing concern about misinformation and disinformation is in large part driven by the potential for AI, in the hands of bad actors, to flood global information systems with false narratives.

Spread of mis- and disinformation could result in civil unrest, government-driven censorship, domestic propaganda and controls on free flow of information

Over the next two years, the report states:

“foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage misinformation and disinformation to widen societal and political divides”. This risk is enhanced by a large number of elections in the near future, with more than 3 billion people due to head to the polls in 2024 and 2025, including in major economies like the United States, India and the United Kingdom.

The report suggests that the spread of mis- and disinformation around the globe could result in civil unrest, but could also drive government-driven censorship, domestic propaganda and controls on the free flow of information.

In a 10-year context, climate-related risks contribute 5 of the top 10 threats as the world nears or crosses “climate tipping points”.

The risk posed by extreme weather events tops the list as nations remain unprepared for the “triggering of long-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating changes to select planetary systems [which] could be passed at or before 1.5C of global warming, currently anticipated to be reached by the early 2030s”.

Environmental risks could hit the point of no return

Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape over all three time frames. Two-thirds of GRPS respondents rank Extreme weather as the top risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, with the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle projected to intensify and persist until May this year. It is also seen as the second-most severe risk over the two-year time frame and similar to last year’s rankings, nearly all environmental risks feature among the top 10 over the longer term.

However, GRPS respondents disagree about the urgency of environmental risks, in particular Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and Critical change to Earth systems. Younger respondents tend to rank these risks far more highly over the two-year period compared to older age groups, with both risks featuring in their top 10 rankings in the short term.

The private sector highlights these risks as top concerns over the longer term, in contrast to respondents from civil society or government who prioritize these risks over shorter time frames. This dissonance in perceptions of urgency among key decision-makers implies sub-optimal alignment and decision-making, heightening the risk of missing key moments of intervention, which would result in long-term changes to planetary systems.

A 3◦C world explores the consequences of passing at least one “climate tipping point” within the next decade. The report says recent research suggests that the threshold for triggering long-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating changes to select planetary systems is likely to be passed at or before 1.5◦C of global warming, which is currently anticipated to be reached by the early 2030s.

Many economies will remain largely unprepared for “non-linear” impacts: the triggering of a nexus of several related socio-environmental risks has the potential to speed up climate change, through the release of carbon emissions, and amplify related impacts, threatening climate-vulnerable populations.

The collective ability of societies to adapt could be overwhelmed, considering the sheer scale of potential impacts and infrastructure investment requirements, leaving some communities and countries unable to absorb both the acute and chronic effects of rapid climate change.

While the threat of extreme weather is seen as an immediate one, there was disagreement about the urgency of other climate-related risks such as the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse. Concern about these risks was significantly higher among younger respondents to the survey, prompting fears that mitigation could be delayed beyond the point where meaningful action can be taken.

Opportunities for responding to global risks

With diminishing trust, political polarization and a volatile geopolitical landscape, the potential for cooperation to tackle global risks is under pressure. The report finds that solutions could emerge as a result of more localized cooperation on the part of nations, corporations and even individual citizens.

However, given the scale of the economic, political and environmental challenges the world is facing, the report concludes that, “cross-border collaboration at scale remains critical for risks that are decisive for human security and prosperity”.

This will be a focus at the 2024 World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, taking place under the theme Rebuilding Trust. The programme urges a “back to basics” spirit of open and constructive dialogue between leaders of government, business and civil society.”

Click here to download the report in full