Sir James Bevan, Chief Executive at the Environment Agency is warning that the costs of flood infrastructure provision in England are likely to "cost a good deal more"  than the £50 billion the EA has already predicted it will cost over the next fifty years.

The EA Chief told delegates at this week’s Flood and Coast Conference in Telford that the costs of providing flood resilient infrastructure were likely to be considerably in excess of £50 billion over the next five decades.

The Environment Agency has estimated that between now and 2065 it will require an average investment of at least £1 billion a year – some £50bn over the next fifty years - to build and maintain the traditional hard flooding and coastal change infrastructure the country will need. However, he warned:

“It will cost a good deal more than that to invest in the resilient infrastructure, houses and cities we need, and in some of the softer measures like natural flood management.“

He also called for a debate on whether every area of the country should have the same standard of flood resilience. the National Infrastructure Commission have recommended a national standard of flood resilience. The NIC have proposed that major urban areas should be resilient to events of 0.1% annual probability - resilient against a flood of such severity that it has only a one in a thousand chance of happening in any given year. The rest of the country should be resilient to events of 0.5% annual probability - a one in two hundred likelihood in any given year.

Sir James said that while there are arguments on both sides, the Dutch already have standards like this in place, commenting:

“Maybe we should too… we should certainly have the debate… we in the Environment Agency do think that there needs to be a consistent approach across the country to the level of resilience we provide.”

“Unless we tackle this, in a few decades many areas of the UK could be uninhabitable"

Pursuing the theme set out in his recent speech on climate change, he told his audience:

“We need to wake up to the fact that the changing climate means we may not have enough water in this country in 20 years’ time - what I recently called the Jaws of Death. And we need to wake up to the growing danger that climate change poses in relation to flooding and coastal erosion.”

“Unless we tackle this, in a few decades many areas of the UK could be uninhabitable. Parts of this country risk being retaken by the sea, from which there is no coming back. And much of the rest of the country risks being constantly and lethally threatened by river or coastal flooding.”

“The whole country is affected, directly or indirectly, by flooding and coastal erosion both of which are being driven by climate change.”

“It’s about risk management not risk avoidance, because while we can reduce the risks of flooding and coastal erosion happening and reduce the impacts when they do, we can never prevent all flooding or coastal erosion.”

He went on to explain that a new strategy was now needed to tackle the growing challenges of more frequent and more violent flooding and coastal erosion, encouraging his audience to comment on the EA’s Draft National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England which is currently out for consultation.

According to the Agency, many of the UK’s major cities are on the coast or estuaries, most people live near a river or the sea and one sixth of homes and businesses (5.2 million in England) are already at risk of flooding.

Sir James said:

“We must be prepared for a rise of at least 2°C in global temperatures by the end of the century and the effect that will have on the climate, and we should plan for worse: a 4°C rise is quite possible.”

Two thirds of people in England are served by critical infrastructure located in or dependent on areas at flood risk

He also pointed out that while while many people are not currently at direct risk of houses flooding, over two thirds of people in England are served by critical infrastructure including electricity, water, mobile telephone connections, internet access, roads, railways, hospitals and supermarkets which are located in or dependent on areas at flood risk.

“As the population grows and the flood risk to our infrastructure increases, we’ll be even more vulnerable” he added.

According to the EA Chief, the central thesis of the Environment Agency FCERM’s strategy currently out for consultation is the need to move from a narrow concept of protection to a broader one of resilience.

“While we will always seek to protect people and property where we can, including through hard flood and coastal defences, we will not be able to prevent all flooding and coastal change – particularly as the climate crisis drives more violent weather, higher rainfall in shorter periods, and faster coastal erosion.”

Ensuring climate resilient places would include the traditional approach of protecting areas from flooding and coastal change by building and maintaining flood walls, sea defences and embankments “where it’s possible and cost effective.” 

However he emphasised the need to be honest and acknowledge that “we cannot prevent some parts of the country from flooding or eventually disappearing into the sea.”

In some places that would mean moving people and communities to different places permanently, out of harm’s way which would be “difficult and controversial.” However, it would need to happen, because “if it doesn’t, one day the sea will come over the wall and a lot of people will die.”

He went on to suggest that building more flood and coastal defences is a necessary but not sufficient condition for making the country more resilient. The rest of the country’s national infrastructure and the economy as a whole would need to be able to cope with tomorrow’s climate –the reason the strategy suggests that:

• all infrastructure should be resilient to future flooding and coastal change;
• all new development should contribute to resilience and environmental net gain;
• places and properties affected by flooding and coastal change should be built back better, where necessary in better places;
• all investment in flood and coastal infrastructure should also contribute to sustainable growth.

"Cost of global adaptation to climate change by 2030 will be up to $300 billion a year - a huge new market"

Striking an upbeat note in his concluding comments, he told delegates:

“Much of the investment we’ll need to put in over the next few decades won’t just save money in terms of damages avoided. It will generate greater wealth and prosperity too. Building back better after flooding, designing new technology, creating infrastructure that’s more resilient: these are all huge economic opportunities which will deliver high returns for investors, more growth and jobs, more innovation and new technology.”

Saying that by 2030 the cost of global adaptation to climate change will be up to $300 billion a year, he described it as a huge new market and emphasised that the UK had world-leading expertise across the whole flood and coastal supply chain.

“So this is not just a problem: it’s an economic opportunity we should all seize.”

“It’s also an opportunity to build partnerships around the world to tackle the effects of this climate emergency. The Environment Agency already has excellent links with our colleagues from the Netherlands, the US, Australia, Japan and elsewhere.”

“I’d like to see us all develop more links with India, China and the developing nations, many of which are at even greater risk from rising seas and rivers than we are. For that reason, it’s often those countries that are coming up with the most innovative solutions: we can learn at least as much from them as they can from us.”

Deadline to submit responses to the Environment Agency Draft National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England consultation is 4 July – click here to access the consultation online