Climate change made weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece 10 times more likely, acording to researchers at the Weather Attribution Service and other leading climate scientists.

To analyse whether and to what extent human-induced climate change exacerbated the conditions, researchers from Türkiye, Greece, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States and the United Kingdom undertook an attribution study on the fire weather conditions as well as the preceding dryness.

In July 2025, all three countries experienced one of the most devastating months of wildfires in recent years, fuelled in Greece by a record heatwave above 45C, drought, and strong winds (IFRC, 2025). According to the General Directorate of Forestry, 612 forest fires erupted in June alone - rising to 624 by early July (Anadolu Agency 2025).

In Greece, fires swept through Attica, Crete, Evia, and Kythera in Greece, forcing the evacuation of at least 32,000 - including 5,000 tourists on Crete (IFRC, 2025; Le Monde, 2025). Tens of thousands of acres of farmland, homes, and resorts were destroyed, with half of the island of Kythera burned (Giannopoulos, 2025).

At the time of writing today, the fires were still ongoing, with new major events reported in August across Greece, killing one person and leading to what was called one of the worst days of the summer (BBC, 2025). Five major fires have already burned nearly 19,800 hectares, including 7,200 hectares of the already impacted Chios island (12 August), more than 3,200 hectares around Patra (15 August), 1,500 hectares of vegetation near Lavrio in East Attica (8 August), 2,500 hectares of vegetation on Zakynthos (15 August), and over 5,200 hectares of in Preveza, Ipiros (12 August) (BBC, 2025).

According to MODIS burned area data, as many as 177 forest fires occurred in Turkey in July alone, devastating approximately 60,000 hectares of land. The most affected by the 2025 wildfires in Turkey are the western and northwestern provinces such as Izmir, Bursa, Çanakkale, Manisa, Bilecik, and Hatay in the southeast. Major cities like Izmir and Bursa saw mass evacuations, and both urban and rural communities were directly threatened as fires engulfed villages and approached the outskirts of cities. More than 50,000 individuals were evacuated nationwide between late June and July due to wildfires spreading rapidly, especially around Izmir and Bursa.

In Türkiye, particularly across the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, the dominance of highly flammable Calabrian pine forests, whose cones can disperse seeds over wide areas during high-intensity fires, further exacerbates wildfire spread while simultaneously enabling post-fire regeneration. In contrast, fires occurring in the southeastern regions are predominantly attributed to stubble burning practices in agricultural fields.

Cyprus also experienced its worst wildfires in decades. Intense heat, wind, and drought conditions sparked massive fires north of Limassol, leading to the deaths of two people fleeing the village of Monagri. Approximately 125 square kilometers—about 1% of the island—were destroyed, forcing evacuations from 14 villages.

The summer months June to August are usually the months with most fires, the fire season in the so-called biogeographic Mediterranean region.

To capture the extent and duration of the extreme fire weather across the region, the researchers used the cumulative daily severity rating (DSR). The DSR is a scaled power transformation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), and reflects how difficult a fire is to suppress once ignition has occurred; it is commonly used for assessing fire weather on multi-day timescales.

In addition they have also calculated the Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) which refers to the difference between the amount of moisture the air can hold and the amount it actually holds. In simple terms, it shows the drying effect on vegetation due to hot and dry air, and is a measure of acute fire weather risk.

In addition to the two fireweather metrics, on 3 (DSR) and 7 (VPD) day timescales, they also analyse whether there is a trend in rainfall in the winter preceding the fire season (October to April) and whether the weather patterns at the time most fires started, of a ridge of high pressure over Greece with winds coming from the North has changed in its likelihood of occurrence.

Main findings

Main findings include:

Empirical weather data suggest that, in today’s climate which is warmer by 1.3°C relative to preindustrial times, the extreme conditions that drove the recent wildfires are expected to occur approximately once every 20 years. Compared to a 1.3°C cooler climate this is an increase in likelihood of about a factor of 5 and an increase in the intensity of the DSR of about 14%. This means the event as characterised by the DSR over the region outlined above would only be expected to occur once per 100 years without climate change. The event in today’s climate is about a 1 in 10 year event, whereas in a 1.3°C cooler climate, it would be expected to occur once in every 100 years. The intensity has increased by about 16%.

To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend the scientists combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. For both indices the models on average show a stronger increase in likelihood and intensity than observed, leading to an overall increase in VPD7x of a factor of about 13 and an increase in intensity of about 18% attributable to human-induced climate change. For DSR the overarching increase in likelihood due to climate change is a factor 10 and an increase in intensity of about 22%.

With a further 1.3°C of global warming, causing global temperatures to reach 2.6°C, which is expected this century under current policies, the projected VPD7x conditions are 18% more intense and about six times more likely to occur, compared to now. The DSR is projected to become another 25% more intense and another nine times more likely.

In the winter months leading up to the wildfires, in general, it was dry in Greece and wet in Türkiye. However, across the last number of years there is an overall drying trend in both regions, with this trend stronger in Türkiye. Looking at overall rainfall observation totals during the pre-fire season, October to April, the totals to have decreased by around 14%. The study says it should be noted that the timing and duration of pre-season rainfall can act as an early indicator of potential wildfire risk, as well as the total rainfall over the period.

The study also suggests that certain types of high-pressure systems have become more intense, leading to more intense heat and stronger northerly winds.

The simultaneous occurrence of highly impactful wildfires across Europe highlights the current strain on firefighting resources in the current climate with 1.3°C of warming. This year, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, responsible for coordinating aid and support during emergencies, has been activated 17 times in response to wildfires, including in Greece, Albania, Bulgaria, and Spain over seven days.

The study says with further warming, more extreme, concurrent fire-weather will continue to challenge firefighting resources and push the limits of adaptation in some places.

While each of the countries faces significant and increasing risks, they have also strengthened their capacities in recent years, especially following the catastrophic 2021 wildfire season.

Since then, Greece and Turkiye have particularly leveraged AI and drones to improve the quick detection of wildfires, so that response can happen quicker, and increased firefighting resources.

In Cyprus, there have been efforts to adopt integrated fire management plans, improve community evacuation during fires, and speed adoption of an early warning system, while support from other countries has bridged capacity gaps

Türkiye, Greece, and Cyprus have also all expanded firefighting forces and brought in stricter legal frameworks. Cyprus has developed satellite-based detection.

The study concludes that as climate change increases risks, adaptation efforts can be strengthened by further educating the public about wildfire risks and fire safety behaviors, increasing investment in proactive wildfire mitigation and management, and integrating Indigenous, traditional, and contemporary fire management practices into policy.

Click here to download the full study