The Environment Agency (EA) is warning that England will experience worse levels of drought next year if this winter is drier than normal.

The warning comes in the Agency’s newly- released Drought Prospects Report which examines the wet weather needed through the winter to ensure the country’s current low water levels recover by spring 2026.

Despite recent rainfall, the drought situation across the country is still precarious following a record dry spring and a continued run of heatwaves and dry weather throughout the summer. This spring was the driest in 132 years and the summer is the hottest since records began in 1884, with four heatwaves.

Drought is only over when water levels are fully replenished, and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of ten months so far in 2025. This means that flooding in drought is possible, including flash floods as dry soils struggle to soak up intense downpours.

Last week the Met Office forecast heavy rain into Saturday but also indicated a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January. This could cause drought conditions to worsen, leading to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.

The new report analyses three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions ahead of next year’s traditionally drier months. Without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature.

Director of Water at the Environment Agency, Helen Wakeham, said:

“There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.

“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.”

Water Minister Emma Hardy commented:

“I welcome the recent rainfall but the prolonged dry weather throughout this year continues to pose risks to public water supplies, farming, and the environment. We continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.

“Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the years ahead. That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, which includes building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage.”

The Drought Prospects Report looks at the rainfall scenarios below and the likely impacts.

Rainfall scenarios:

Average Winter Rainfall (100% of average rainfall)

With average winter rainfall, most of England would be in recovery from drought or have returned to normal conditions by spring 2026. The exception is parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire, which would remain in prolonged dry weather.

Public water supplies and irrigation reservoirs for agriculture would be fully recovered. The canal network would be recovered in time for the peak boating season, which begins around Easter. Some residual effects on nature would remain, such as a poor breeding season for amphibians.

Dry Winter (80% of average rainfall)

This scenario would see drought conditions increase over the winter months because of the current low river flows, groundwater, and reservoir levels. By the end of March, a large area spanning from Dorset to East Yorkshire would be in drought. The south east, south west and East Anglia would be in prolonged dry weather with only the north west experiencing normal conditions.

This rainfall scenario would increase the risks to some crops, with a reduced breeding success of birds, an increased risk of wildfires and potential navigation closures.

Very Dry Winter (60% of average rainfall)

By spring 2026 all of England would be in drought. There would be reduced water for irrigating crops, reduced vegetable production and an impact on grass growth.

Most water companies would see impacts in either all or part of their supply area, meaning an expectation of hosepipe bans and non-essential use bans. There would also be the potential for permanent environmental damage as well as significant impacts in the leisure sector, such as golf clubs and football pitches.

The Environment Agency’s report also pushes for more collaboration across all sectors, with a list of recommended actions. Water companies should continue to engage and help customers use a little less water. They must also continue their efforts to reduce leakage and be ready for cold snaps, which can cause pipes to burst. They should also identify new sources of water and look to accelerate water saving schemes, where possible.

Farmers should decide if they need to adjust their cropping patterns to include more drought tolerant crops or varieties which do not need as much irrigation. They should also look to fill their reservoirs as soon as possible and work with their neighbours to share water rights, or share water, where possible.

The EA is planning to conduct enhanced monitoring, increase checks on abstractors and continue to work with water companies on preparing for drought next spring.

The Agency has also called for additional funding to be made available for long-term research into water use and ways to forecast future droughts.