The European Environment Agency is predicting that Europe will be an average 1.5° warmer in the period 2021-2050 and an average 3° warmer in the period 2071 to 2100, compared with temperatures between 1960-1990. 

Experts at the European Environment Agency (EEA) have produced a series of maps showing projected changes in temperature and precipitation for this century.

Europe will be an average 1.5° C warmer in the period 2021-2050 than the period 1960-1990, according to the ensemble of regional climate projections from the ENSEMBLES project. The highest warming is projected over the eastern Scandinavia, and southern and south-eastern Europe. All areas of the continent will warm by a minimum of approximately 0.4° C and a maximum of 2.5° C, the projections indicate.

Looking further ahead to the period 2071-2100, the models predict that Europe will be on average 3 °C warmer than 1960-1990. In north eastern Scandinavia the temperature change could be up to 6° C higher than the reference period, while the Mediterranean basin and parts of Eastern Europe will also see much bigger changes than elsewhere. All areas are expected to see average annual temperatures at least 1.5° C warmer than the reference period.

The average annual temperatures could potential mask large extremes - during the period 2021 – 2050 summer in some parts of the Mediterranean is expected to be up to 2.5° C warmer than 1961-1990. The higher temperatures will lead to an increase in the number of heat waves and droughts, with correspondingly significant impacts on water supply, agriculture production and human health.

Annual changes in rainfall 2021-2050

 The projections for annual rainfall show a clear split between a decrease and increase of precipitation over Europe. For average annual precipitation, in northern regions models project an increase and in southern/ Mediterranean regions a decrease is projected – showing up to 15% decrease in the south, and a up to 15 % increase in the north.

For the period 2021-2050 the projections show winter precipitation will increase all over Europe, while summer precipitation will decrease. Both of these trends are more pronounced in the maps showing projections for the period 2071-2100.

Increasing precipitation in the northern part can lead to more flood events in the future. The clear projection of decreasing precipitation in southern part together with an increase of temperature will probably lead to more frequent and longer droughts, which will have significant effects on agriculture and tourism industries, especially in the Mediterranean area.

Agriculture is extremely water-intensive in some Mediterranean countries, accounting for up to 80% of water use. The maps show that many countries will need to adapt their agricultural systems to deal with less water, or water at different times of year.

The climate change data behind the maps comes from 25 different Regional Climate models, run in the frame of the ENSEMBLES project, under A1B emission scenario. The scenario assumes rapid economic growth, a global population that grows to 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.

The EEA and the European Commission have recently launched Climate-ADAPT, a web resource aimed at helping policy makers and 'practitioners' – engineers, planners and administrators –to learn from the experience of others facing similar challenges who already carrying out adaptation actions elsewhere. The maps form part of a wealth of information in the Climate-ADAPT resource.